Economists: Recession to end in third quarter - Philadelphia Business Journal:

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The committee cited consumer spending stabilizing in the firstg half ofthis year, allowing businessesx to reduce costs and inventories, as well as reducin g layoffs and investment spending cutbacks. In combinatioh with the stimulus and an improvementf in thefinancial markets, it is likelh the economy will expan d in the second half of the year. Bruce Kasman, committee chairmab and chief economist forNew York-basee (NYSE: JPM), said the economy will return to growth, but not “Growth in the cominvg quarters is likely to gather momentum but will not provd sufficiently robust to undo much of the severe damage done to our labor markets and publix finances,” Kasman said in a news For the third quarter, the committee forecastss inflation-adjusted gross domestic product will returnj to positive growth, picking up to a more than 3 percenrt pace by the second half of 2010.
Also, the committeee is projecting an end tothe three-year downturnn in the housing market, with housinvg starts rising later this year and home valuex moving up modestly in 2010. “Lower pricesz and low mortgage rates have greatly improvedd the affordabilityof homes,” Kasman “A recovery in the housing sector will be an importanty contributor to economic growth.” However, credit will remain tight and bank economista said jobs will continue to be lost. Unemployment is expectedx to peak at 10 percent nationally and remainm at orabove 9.
5 percent through next Budget deficits are expected to remain well above $1 trilliohn this year and next The 13-member committee forecastsd the 10-year Treasury bond yield will stay in the 3.75 percenty to 4.25 percent range through next year becauser core inflation is forecast to fall towards 1 percent. the committee is concerned about the rising trend in federalp debt and the implications for inflatiob riskbeyond 2010.